Current Research Interests
- Meteorological applications for polarimetric Doppler radar
- Phased array weather radar observations, techniques, and signal processing for data quality enhancements
- Adaptive digital beamforming and imaging methods for meteorological phased arrays
- Deep learning techniques for the detection and prediction of tornadoes
- Pulse compression methods and optimal waveform design
- Radar network design and coverage optimization
- Radar architecture and network density benefits and monetization
- Weather radar filtering, discrimination, and classification of non-hydrometeors
- Radar observations of severe local storms and tornadoes at high spatial and temporal resolutions
Abstracts from Selected Publications of Current and Previous Research Topics
A Benchmark Dataset for Tornado Detection and Prediction using Full-Resolution Polarimetric Weather Radar Data
Weather radar is the primary tool used by forecasters to detect and warn for tornadoes in near-real time. In order to assist forecasters in warning the public, several algorithms have been developed to automatically detect tornadic signatures in weather radar observations. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, which learn directly from large amounts of labeled data, have been shown to be highly effective for this purpose. Since tornadoes are extremely rare events within the corpus of all available radar observations, the selection and design of training datasets for ML applications is critical for the performance, robustness, and ultimate acceptance of ML algorithms. This study introduces a new benchmark dataset, TorNet, to support development of ML algorithms in tornado detection and prediction. TorNet contains full-resolution, polarimetric, Level-II WSR-88D data sampled from 10 years of reported storm events. A number of ML baselines for tornado detection are developed and compared, including a novel deep learning (DL) architecture capable of processing raw radar imagery without the need for manual feature extraction required for existing ML algorithms. Despite not benefiting from manual feature engineering or other preprocessing, the DL model shows increased detection performance compared to non-DL and operational baselines. The TorNet dataset, as well as source code and model weights of the DL baseline trained in this work, are made freely available.
A Deep Learning–Based Velocity Dealiasing Algorithm Derived from the WSR-88D Open Radar Product Generator
Radial velocity estimates provided by Doppler weather radar are critical measurements used by operational forecasters for the detection and monitoring of life-impacting storms. The sampling methods used to produce these measurements are inherently susceptible to aliasing, which produces ambiguous velocity values in regions with high winds and needs to be corrected using a velocity dealiasing algorithm (VDA). In the United States, the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG) is a processing environment that provides a world-class VDA; however, this algorithm is complex and can be difficult to port to other radar systems outside the WSR-88D network. In this work, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to emulate the two-dimensional WSR-88D ORPG dealiasing algorithm. It is shown that a DNN, specifically a customized U-Net, is highly effective for building VDAs that are accurate, fast, and portable to multiple radar types. To train the DNN model, a large dataset is generated containing aligned samples of folded and dealiased velocity pairs. This dataset contains samples collected from WSR-88D Level-II and Level-III archives and uses the ORPG dealiasing algorithm output as a source of truth. Using this dataset, a U-Net is trained to produce the number of folds at each point of a velocity image. Several performance metrics are presented using WSR-88D data. The algorithm is also applied to other non-WSR-88D radar systems to demonstrate portability to other hardware/software interfaces. A discussion of the broad applicability of this method is presented, including how other Level-III algorithms may benefit from this approach.
Impact of WSR-88D Intra-Volume Low-Level Scans on Severe Weather Warning Performance
The statistical relationship between supplemental adaptive intra-volume low-level scan (SAILS) usage on the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and National Weather Service severe storm warning performance during 2014–20 is analyzed. Results show statistically significant improvement in severe thunderstorm (SVR), flash flood (FF), and tornado (TOR) warning performance associated with SAILS-on versus SAILS-off. Within the three possible SAILS modes of one (SAILSx1), two (SAILSx2), and three (SAILSx3) additional base scans per volume, for SVR, SAILSx2 and SAILSx3 are associated with better warning performance compared to SAILSx1; for FF and TOR, SAILSx3 is associated with better warning performance relative to SAILSx1 and SAILSx2. Two severe storm cases (one that spawned a tornado, one that did not) are presented where SAILS usage helped forecasters make the correct TOR warning decision, lending real-life credence to the statistical results. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of automated volume scan evaluation and termination effects, parsed by SAILS usage and mode, yield a statistically significant association between volume scan update rate and SVR warning lead time.
Weather Radar Network Benefit Model for Tornadoes
A monetized tornado benefit model is developed for arbitrary weather radar network configurations. Geospatial regression analyses indicate that improvement of two key radar parameters—fraction of vertical space observed and cross-range horizontal resolution—leads to better tornado warning performance as characterized by tornado detection probability and false-alarm ratio. Previous experimental results showing faster volume scan rates yielding greater warning performance are also incorporated into the model. Enhanced tornado warning performance, in turn, reduces casualty rates. In addition, lower false-alarm ratios save costs by cutting down on work and personal time lost while taking shelter. The model is run on the existing contiguous U.S. weather radar network as well as hypothetical future configurations. Results show that the current radars provide a tornado-based benefit of ~$490 million (M) yr−1. The remaining benefit pool is about $260M yr−1, split roughly evenly between coverage- and rapid-scanning-related gaps.
Geospatial QPE Accuracy Dependence on Weather Radar Network Configurations
The relatively low density of weather radar networks can lead to low-altitude coverage gaps. As existing networks are evaluated for gap fillers and new networks are designed, the benefits of low-altitude coverage must be assessed quantitatively. This study takes a regression approach to modeling quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) differences based on network density, antenna aperture, and polarimetric bias. Thousands of cases from the warm-season months of May–August 2015–17 are processed using both the specific attenuation [R(A)] and reflectivity–differential reflectivity [R(Z, ZDR)] QPE methods and are compared with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) rain gauge data. QPE errors are quantified on the basis of beam height, cross-radial resolution, added polarimetric bias, and observed rainfall rate. The collected data are used to construct a support vector machine regression model that is applied to the current WSR-88D network for holistic error quantification. An analysis of the effects of polarimetric bias on flash-flood rainfall rates is presented. Rainfall rates that are based on 2-yr/1-h return rates are used for a contiguous-U.S.-wide analysis of QPE errors in extreme rainfall situations. These errors are then requantified using previously proposed network design scenarios with additional radars that provide enhanced estimate capabilities. Last, a gap-filling scenario utilizing the QPE error model, flash-flood rainfall rates, population density, and potential additional WSR-88D sites is presented, exposing the highest-benefit coverage holes in augmenting the WSR-88D network (or a future network) relative to QPE performance.
Extended Polarimetric Observations of Chaff Using the WSR-88D Weather Radar Network
Military chaff is a metallic, fibrous radar countermeasure that is released by aircraft and rockets for diversion and masking of targets. It is often released across the United States for training purposes, and, due to its resonant cut lengths, is often observed on the S-band Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network. Efforts to identify and characterize chaff and other non-meteorological targets algorithmically require a statistical understanding of the targets. Previous studies of chaff characteristics have provided important information that has proven to be useful for algorithmic development. However, recent changes to the WSR-88D processing suite have allowed for a vastly extended range of differential reflectivity, a prime topic of previous studies on chaff using weather radar. Motivated by these changes, a new dataset of 2.8 million range gates of chaff from 267 cases across the United States is analyzed. With a better spatiotemporal representation of cases compared to previous studies, new analyses of height dependence, as well as changes in statistics by volume coverage pattern are examined, along with an investigation of the new “full” range of differential reflectivity. A discussion of how these findings are being used in WSR-88D algorithm development is presented, specifically with a focus on machine learning and separation of different target types.
Polarimetric Observations of Chaff using the WSR-88D Network
Chaff is a radar countermeasure typically used by military branches in training exercises around the United States. Chaff within view of the S-band WSR-88D radars can appear prominently on radar users’ displays. Knowledge of chaff characteristics is useful for radar users to discriminate between chaff and weather echoes and for automated algorithms to do the same. The WSR-88D network provides dual-polarimetric capabilities across the United States, leading to the collection of a large database of chaff cases. This database is analyzed to determine the characteristics of chaff in terms of the reflectivity factor and polarimetric variables on large scales. Particular focus is given to the dynamics of differential reflectivity (ZDR) in chaff and its dependence on height. Contrary to radar data observations of chaff for a single event, this study is able to reveal a repeatable and new pattern of radar chaff observations. A discussion regarding the observed characteristics is presented, and hypotheses for the observed ZDR dynamics are put forth.
Development of a New Inanimate Class for the WSR-88D Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm
The current implementation of the Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm (HCA) on the WSR-88D network contains two non-hydrometeor-based classes: ground clutter/anomalous propagation and biologicals. A number of commonly observed non-hydrometeor-based phenomena do not fall into either of these two HCA categories, but often are misclassified as ground clutter, biologicals, unknown, or worse yet, weather hydrometeors. Some of these phenomena include chaff, sea clutter, combustion debris and smoke, and radio frequency interference. In order to address this discrepancy, a new class (nominally named “inanimate”) is being developed that encompasses many of these targets. Using this class, a distinction between non-biological and biological non-hydrometeor targets can be made and potentially separated into sub-classes for more direct identification. A discussion regarding the fuzzy logic membership functions, optimization of membership weights, and class restrictions is presented, with a focus on observations of highly stochastic differential phase estimates in all of the aforementioned targets. Recent attempts to separate the results into sub-classes using a support vector machine are presented, and examples of each target type are detailed. Details concerning eventual implementation into the WSR-88D radar product generator are addressed.
Observations of Severe Local Storms and Tornadoes with the Atmospheric Imaging Radar
Mobile radar platforms designed for observation of severe local storms have consistently pushed the boundaries of spatial and temporal resolution in order to allow for detailed analysis of storm structure and evolution. Digital beamforming, or radar imaging, is a technique that is similar in nature to a photographic camera, where data samples from different spaces at the same range are collected simultaneously. This allows for rapid volumetric update rates compared to radars that scan with a single narrow beam. The Atmospheric Imaging Radar (AIR) is a mobile X-band (3.14-cm wavelength) imaging weather radar that transmits a vertical, 20° fan beam and uses a 36-element receive array to form instantaneous range-height indicators (RHIs) with a native beamwidth of 1° by 1°. Rotation in azimuth allows for 20° by 90° volumetric updates in under 6 s, while advanced pulse compression techniques achieve 37.5-m range resolution. The AIR has been operational since 2012 and has collected data on tornadoes and supercells at ranges as close as 6 km, resulting in high spatial and temporal resolution observations of severe local storms. The use of atmospheric imaging is exploited to detail rapidly evolving phenomena that are difficult to observe with traditional scanning weather radars.
High-Temporal Resolution Polarimetric X-band Doppler Radar Observations of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Tornado
On 20 May 2013, the cities of Newcastle, Oklahoma City, and Moore, Oklahoma were impacted by a long-track violent tornado that was rated as an EF5 on the enhanced Fujita scale by the National Weather Service. Despite a relatively sustained long track, damage surveys revealed a number of small-scale damage indicators that hinted at storm-scale processes that occurred over short time periods. The University of Oklahoma (OU) Advanced Radar Research Center’s PX-1000 transportable, polarimetric, X-band weather radar was operating in a single-elevation PPI scanning strategy at the OU Westheimer airport throughout the duration of the tornado, collecting high spatial and temporal resolution polarimetric data every 20 s at ranges as close as 10 km and heights below 500 m AGL. This dataset contains the only known polarimetric radar observations of the Moore tornado at such high temporal resolution, providing the opportunity to analyze and study fine-scale phenomena occurring on rapid time scales. Analysis is presented of a series of debris ejections and rear flank gust front surges that both preceded and followed a loop of the tornado as it weakened over the Moore Medical Center before rapidly accelerating and re-strengthening to the east. The gust front structure, debris characteristics, and differential reflectivity arc breakdown are explored as evidence for a “failed occlusion” hypothesis. Observations are supported by rigorous hand-analysis of critical storm attributes, including tornado track relative to the damage survey, sudden track shifts, and a directional debris ejection analysis. A conceptual description and illustration of the suspected failed occlusion process is provided, and its implications are discussed.
A Pulse Compression Waveform for Improved-Sensitivity Weather Radar Observations
The progression of phased array weather observations, research, and planning over the past decade has led to significant advances in development efforts for future weather radar technologies. However, numerous challenges still remain for large-scale deployment. The eventual goal for phased array weather radar technology includes the use of active arrays, where each element would have its own transmit/receive module. This would lead to significant advantages; however, such a design must be capable of utilizing low-power, solid-state transmitters at each element in order to keep costs down. To provide acceptable sensitivity, as well as the range resolution needed for weather observations, pulse compression strategies are required. Pulse compression has been used for decades in military applications, but it has yet to be applied on a broad scale to weather radar, partly because of concerns regarding sensitivity loss caused by pulse windowing. A robust optimization technique for pulse compression waveforms with minimalistic windowing using a genetic algorithm is presented. A continuous nonlinear frequency-modulated waveform that takes into account transmitter distortion is shown, both in theory and in practical use scenarios. Measured pulses and weather observations from the Advanced Radar Research Center’s dual-polarized PX-1000 transportable radar, which utilizes dual 100-W solid-state transmitters, are presented. Both stratiform and convective scenarios, as well as dual-polarization observations, are shown, demonstrating significant improvement in sensitivity over previous pulse compression methods.
Optimization of Weather Radar Networks using a Genetic Algorithm
The current Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar network is approaching 20 years of age, leading researchers to begin exploring new opportunities for a next-generation network in the United States. With a vast list of requirements for a new weather radar network, research has provided various approaches to the design and fabrication of such a network. Additionally, new weather radar networks in other countries, as well as networks on smaller scales, must balance a large number of variables in order to operate in the most effective way possible. To offer network designers an objective analysis tool for such decisions, a coverage optimization technique, utilizing a genetic algorithm with a focus on low-level coverage, is presented. Optimization is achieved using a variety of variables and methods, including the use of climatology, population density, and attenuation due to average precipitation conditions. A method to account for terrain blockage in mountainous regions is also presented. Various combinations of multifrequency radar networks are explored, and results are presented in the form of a coverage-based cost–benefit analysis, with considerations for total network lifetime cost.
Long-Term Temperature Trends in the Upper Atmosphere
Ionospheric ion temperature is an excellent approximation to neutral temperature in the upper atmosphere, especially, for altitudes below 300 km. This analysis of long-term ionospheric ion temperature changes between 100 and 550 km at noon is based on a database of incoherent scatter radar observations spanning more than three solar cycles during 1968–2006 at Millstone Hill and provides direct evidence of long-term changes and their height dependency in the upper atmospheric temperature. A cooling trend at altitudes above 200 km and an apparent warming trend below 200 km are found. The cooling increases with height and shows variability with solar activity. The apparent warming varies with season and solar activity. It may result from the thermal subsidence caused by atmospheric contraction and pressure level change and from the ion temperature overestimation in the F1 region due to ion composition long-term changes. These long-term changes in ion temperature are accompanied by changes in electron density, being lower above the F2 peak and higher below the F2 peak. Electron temperature is accordingly enhanced. All these changes appear to be suggestive of a long-term greenhouse gas effect.